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Old 08-27-2008, 08:28 PM   #2 (permalink)
Igor
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Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: California
Posts: 771
Default Re: Analysis for some up and coming fighters in tough matches during the next few wee

On FNF this week, Godfrey, who lost a close, but clear decision to the more expe rienced prospect Rudolf Kraj in Germany, takes on Nwodo, the hard hitting, big African CW who was brutally stopped by Ding. He bounced back with his own brutal KO against Ezra Sellers earlier this year in two rounds and hasn't fought since. Godfrey hasn't been very active either though.

In his fight against Derrick Brown (someone who was shut out by Jonathan Banks and has a draw against Gary Gomez, the fat CW who Adamek recently owned), he became overly tentative after getting caught with a big punch in the early-mid rounds and let Brown outwork him for the majority of the fight. He was wobbled in the last round, but he still ended up winning a narrow decision. Also, Godfrey was knocked down earlier in his career, so his chin is very questionable, despite handling Kraj's power well.

Against Kraj, Godfrey showed good boxing skill from the outside and looked motivated, but he ended up giving away too many rounds by being overly tentative again and not firing enough. His handspeed is good, his skills are pretty good too. He just has that common problem with many slick outside fighters, where they let pressure fighters take rounds using more aggression than they're comfortable with. He sees openings, but he chooses to move instead of countering a lot of times.

Godfrey is fighting in home town and he realizes that this is a dangerous fight, so he should be coming in highly motivated. However, Nwodo has the type of power to turn the tide at any time during the fight and force Godfrey to become overly tentative again. Nwodo hits hard and his boxing skill is pretty good (worse than Godfrey's though and his handspeed is slower), but his output is pretty low because he puts a lot of force into his power shots. The important thing for him here is to keep moving Godfrey back, making him tentative. He doesn't need to put a ton of force into every power shot, he just needs to throw punches consistently at him, using the jab a lot and trying to land something huge every now and then to keep Godfrey uncomfortable. Godfrey counters less when he's worried about getting caught with something and if Nwodo fights in spurts too often he will give this fight away.

Godfrey is nearly a 2-1 favorite, but I think this is pretty much an even matchup. I see Godfrey doing pretty well early, starting to break down mentally during the middle rounds as Nwodo warms up and keeps him moving, then possibly coming back strong in the later rounds in the fight if Nwodo becomes tired. They both have the power to hurt eachother, but Nwodo has the power to take Godfrey out, while Godfrey will need to work harder for the stoppage IMO. I think Nwodo has a great chance of winning a decision because of his aggression, power, and size.. but there's also a good chance Godfrey gets a gift (or a deserving decision) in his hometown from landing the cleaner shots. I'll pick Nwodo by SD, but wouldn't be surprised if he won by KO or lost a close decision.
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