Some good chances of upsets on the Hatton-Malignaggi undercard..

[Igor]

First, the best chance of an upset.. Kirkland-Vera.

This is going to be a war for as long as it lasts. Everyone knows the deal on Kirkland.. all out pressure with looping punches and terrible defense from the opening bell. He's been stunned before, he's shown stamina issues before, and his power is not proven (he gets stoppages early mostly because lower level fighters panic right away against him and can't handle his wild offense). Vera is a tough fighter with a lot of heart, but little ability and skill. He always gets up for bigger fights and in this fight he looks to be in the best shape of his career. Maybe this will matter, maybe it won't, but I've never seen him even close to this type of shape before (from today's weighin) so it's worth noting:


Kirkland is essentially fighting a MW here.. Vera weighed in at 157 and has been fighting at MW-SMW for years. He does have a pretty shaky chin, but the only time he has been badly hurt and knocked out is when he fought Codrington at 168, who has very serious one punch power when he really steps into his punches. Jaidon even hurt Sakio Bika. IMO, Kirkland's power is not as good as most make it out to be and if he doesn't blow Vera out early, this might turn out like Kirkland's fight against Billy Lyell last year, where he got tired, lost a lot of pop on his punches, got sloppier than ever offensively/defensively, and looked to almost be breaking down mentally in a few moments.

Vera is going to be there to get hit, but so will Kirkland. Vera is also the bigger guy and he'll be able to push Kirkland around if he weathers the early storm and starts taking over when Kirkland begins to show signs of being tired. I don't think he'll be able to do it in the early rounds unless he hurts Kirkland, because Vera's balance sucks and he'll be starting more defensively than usual because of being overwhelmed by Kirkland's style. Vera doesn't have a big punch, but he has some power and against a 154 pounder with at least a somewhat shaky chin who runs straight into punches, it's not hard to see him hurting Kirkland. The key here is just to survive the storm for the first 3-4 rounds, something I'm not too confident that he will be able to do. But if he does, then I think Kirkland is screwed. He'll be tired, while Vera will get his second wind and be a lot more comfortable with the situation, finding it much easier to catch Kirkland with his own looping shots and forcing him to fight at a tougher pace in the middle rounds than he's ever fought at before. This fight is 55/45 Kirkland IMO.. very close.

The other fight where there's a pretty good chance of an upset is Bautista-Ruiz. If Ruiz can take Bautista's punch, then he will make this a very tough night for him, possibly coming back to stop him late while being behind on the cards. To make this short, Bautista crumbles under pressure. His chin is weak, he panics when a fighter is too strong for him, and he can't fight going backwards well if an opponent is not showing him respect. 70/30 Bautista IMO.

BTW, Matthew Hatton vs Ben Tackie came up at pretty much even odds on betting sites (Tackie is only a slight favorite now). I can't understand the thinking there.. Matthew Hatton is C- level at best and Tackie has been very competitive with a lot of solid fighters. Although he has four losses in a row, they were all to good competition and I don't remember for sure, but I think that in his last fight, Bruseles got a gift against him. Tackie is definitely not shot or anything close to it. He's going to outclass Hatton's brother with his skills and outfight him with his toughness and experience.

[Igor]

I think I couldn't post the pics because the site fightnews e xtra has "sex" in the middle of it. To look at the weighin pics you could just go to fightnews.

[Samurai]

Ben Tackie is only a slight favorite over Matthew? Wtf?

[Brooklyn1550]

I've watched a couple Kirkland fights today and I'm really liking Vera's chances. One big bomb from Vera flush on the chin could turn the tide of the fight in his favor, and given Kirkland's defense, I think it just might happen. Fuck it, I'm going with the upset - Brian Vera TKO6.

[Benny Blanco]

I hope Kirkland does win, because I think he is good for boxing and has a crowd pleasing style that can attract new fans to boxing.

[Benny Blanco]

Kirkland/Vera fight is so far a barnburner for sure.

[smoochp]

Kirkland stamina sucks and he won't last or have a good career. HBO is trying to hype him up, but he isn't good. Angulo would whoop his ass like said on the other site

[Benny Blanco]

Originally Posted by smoochp

Kirkland stamina sucks and he won't last or have a good career. HBO is trying to hype him up, but he isn't good. Angulo would whoop his ass like said on the other site

He will probably never be elite but he can have a decent career on the world class level similar to someone like Randall Bailey early in his career.

[cardstars]

Funny thing is that imo Kirkland showed a few improvements.....but he offset the improvements by showing some new weaknesses also. Tsurkan would tax that ass after the mid rounds, but I would still like to see that fight made with the winner taking on Martinez