Analysis for some up and coming fighters in tough matches during the next few weeks..

[CJLightweight]

anyway talking about up coming fights reminds me..huki i think you should bring your weekend big fight picks here from esb

i like to see some analysis regarding valuev-ruiz and calderon-cazares

[Igor]

Originally Posted by brooklyn1550

Great call on Boswell-Greenburg. Boswell TKO2

Just checked fightnews before clicking this thread and saw this! Now I could finally go to sleep. Roman Greenberg was a terrible prospect and he had no fire in him.

The description of what happened makes it look like Greenberg wasn't fighting back at all after getting hurt. He was probably just laying on the ropes with his guard up, waiting for Boswell to stop swarming him instead of forcing him to stop. He seems like one of those guys that will retire after a loss like this too. If your heart isn't in it, what's the point of damaging your health any longer..

Boswell should be an interesting C+/B- type of HW in the future. He could become somebody who prospects step up against to prove themselves.

Originally Posted by acb_

Igor I like your threads on modern boxing a lot, keep em coming.

Thanks. I've been doing these type of analysis posts for myself for a while now, but I rarely posted them because they're usually in messy note form. I bet on boxing pretty much every week so I try to analyze matchups from the lowest level to the highest. This was the classic situation of a fighter with a zero being favored over a guy who has a loss, but looks way better on film. By this morning, the odds actually went towards Boswell nearly 2/1.. I guess many people realized what kind of bad situation Greenberg is in. What the hell was his team thinking? It almost makes me think that they wanted to get rid of him or something.

[CJLightweight]

btw huki is that you on your avatar?

[brooklyn1550]

Originally Posted by Igor

Just checked fightnews before clicking this thread and saw this! Now I could finally go to sleep. Roman Greenberg was a terrible prospect and he had no fire in him.

The description of what happened makes it look like Greenberg wasn't fighting back at all after getting hurt. He was probably just laying on the ropes with his guard up, waiting for Boswell to stop swarming him instead of forcing him to stop. He seems like one of those guys that will retire after a loss like this too. If your heart isn't in it, what's the point of damaging your health any longer..

Boswell should be an interesting C+/B- type of HW in the future. He could become somebody who prospects step up against to prove themselves.

It was the fight I saw on the David Tua-Saul Montana undercard where I first saw Greenberg fight. Some fans touted him as a poor-man's Shannon Briggs with fast hands and great power, but what I saw was a big, decently skilled guy who looked like he was just going through the motions. He looked like he didn't even want to be there.

I'd like to see Boswell-Barrett (and Greenberg-Fields for that matter. That would be a real funny fight).

[Igor]

Originally Posted by CJLightweight

anyway talking about up coming fights reminds me..huki i think you should bring your weekend big fight picks here from esb

i like to see some analysis regarding valuev-ruiz and calderon-cazares

I might bring the league back at the beginning of 2009. To be honest, it's been a bit of a pain in the ass to run it this year on the ESB, but I know how to make it easier next time. I'll also put the scores in an excel spreadsheet so I can count everything up in 10 minutes max instead of 30+ minutes.

I don't have much time right now to write analysis for those two fights because I need to log off and get to sleep. I'm going fishing early in the morning for two days, then going to a concert Sunday night and driving to LA for a few days straight after. I'm so dedicated to following boxing though that I'm stopping at home for a few hours on Sunday to download the Calderon/Mijares/Valuev fights, so I could watch them on the car ride over there. So I'll be back here Wednesday.

There isn't much to analyze in the Valuev-Ruiz fight. Basically, I favor Valuev to win a clearer decision than last time, but still a competitive one where he struggles pretty often with Ruiz's style. IMO his jab will save him again though, this time more than before because Ruiz is older and Valuev is getting slightly more comfortable with his style and using his jab effectively. It'll be very difficult for Ruiz to get a decision even if he wins 6/7 rounds.. so it's hard to see him becoming a titlist again. Shit, what a nightmare that would be.

For Calderon-Cazares, I favor Calderon by close UD again like last time because of two main things. Calderon is not fading as badly as I originally thought (he is fading though) and he's most likely not going to be in worse shape than he was in the first time. But I feel Cazares on the other hand, will be in worse physical shape than before. He drained like crazy the first time and said before he ever even faced Calderon that he needed to move up. He had no option but to move down again and fight this rematch because it's by far the biggest available fight for him. IMO, he was willing to damage his body by draining like crazy again to get this big fight. Who knows though.. maybe it won't affect him that much and he'll be in the same shape as he was in the first time.

Also, I feel Calderon knows exactly what to do against Cazares to get the decision. It's just a matter of can he do it without getting caught with anything big. I think he could, but I also wouldn't be shocked if he got caught again and stopped this time. Calderon has the style to frustrate Cazares and make him look silly. Cazares has the size/strength to hurt Calderon badly at any point of the fight. It's a fairly even matchup where I believe Calderon should be favored because of his advantages in style, speed, and overall ability.. plus the weight factor and I have a feeling that Cazares is fading too at this point of his career.

[Igor]

Originally Posted by brooklyn1550

I'd like to see Boswell-Barrett (and Greenberg-Fields for that matter. That would be a real funny fight).

Yeah, that would be interesting to say the least. Golota-Briggs and Tua-Arreola with Greenberg-Fields on the undercard would be a dream lower level HW's PPV. BTW, Barrett-Fields was one of the funniest fights I've ever seen. Damn.. it was perfect. The first punch, Fields' reaction, etc..

Originally Posted by CJLightweight

btw huki is that you on your avatar?

Povetkin with Kostya Tszyu around 2004 I believe. That's why he looks so skinny.

[brooklyn1550]

Originally Posted by Igor

Yeah, that would be interesting to say the least. Golota-Briggs and Tua-Arreola with Greenberg-Fields on the undercard would be a dream lower level HW's PPV. BTW, Barrett-Fields was one of the funniest fights I've ever seen. Damn.. it was perfect. The first punch, Fields' reaction, etc..

You know what else was funny? Fields vs Koval on Versus...

Fields comes out swinging like a kid who's never put on a pair of boxing gloves, Koval trips and goes down, the ref tells Koval he knew it was a slip, Koval laughs, then gets hit by a body shot, falls to the canvas and begins to cry. Jesse Reid then says Fields is ready for Rahman and Peter, but adds that neither wants a piece of him.

[CJLightweight]

Originally Posted by Igor

I might bring the league back at the beginning of 2009. To be honest, it's been a bit of a pain in the ass to run it this year on the ESB, but I know how to make it easier next time. I'll also put the scores in an excel spreadsheet so I can count everything up in 10 minutes max instead of 30+ minutes.

I don't have much time right now to write analysis for those two fights because I need to log off and get to sleep. I'm going fishing early in the morning for two days, then going to a concert Sunday night and driving to LA for a few days straight after. I'm so dedicated to following boxing though that I'm stopping at home for a few hours on Sunday to download the Calderon/Mijares/Valuev fights, so I could watch them on the car ride over there. So I'll be back here Wednesday.

There isn't much to analyze in the Valuev-Ruiz fight. Basically, I favor Valuev to win a clearer decision than last time, but still a competitive one where he struggles pretty often with Ruiz's style. IMO his jab will save him again though, this time more than before because Ruiz is older and Valuev is getting slightly more comfortable with his style and using his jab effectively. It'll be very difficult for Ruiz to get a decision even if he wins 6/7 rounds.. so it's hard to see him becoming a titlist again. Shit, what a nightmare that would be.

For Calderon-Cazares, I favor Calderon by close UD again like last time because of two main things. Calderon is not fading as badly as I originally thought (he is fading though) and he's most likely not going to be in worse shape than he was in the first time. But I feel Cazares on the other hand, will be in worse physical shape than before. He drained like crazy the first time and said before he ever even faced Calderon that he needed to move up. He had no option but to move down again and fight this rematch because it's by far the biggest available fight for him. IMO, he was willing to damage his body by draining like crazy again to get this big fight. Who knows though.. maybe it won't affect him that much and he'll be in the same shape as he was in the first time.

Also, I feel Calderon knows exactly what to do against Cazares to get the decision. It's just a matter of can he do it without getting caught with anything big. I think he could, but I also wouldn't be shocked if he got caught again and stopped this time. Calderon has the style to frustrate Cazares and make him look silly. Cazares has the size/strength to hurt Calderon badly at any point of the fight. It's a fairly even matchup where I believe Calderon should be favored because of his advantages in style, speed, and overall ability.. plus the weight factor and I have a feeling that Cazares is fading too at this point of his career.

thanks that is enough analysis for me..i thought i was the only here who thinks cazares might pull off a KO win, i just rewatched their first fight and from what i see i think calderon has a bit of a shaky chin, not really fitting for his nickname iron boy.. i feel that cazares and his team might also work on a plan to put this off knowing he can hurt and pull a KO against calderon.

but yeah i agree calderon should be favored overall because of his ability..had cazares pull off the win the 1st time around i'd still favor calderon because of that. Anyway nice and thanks again..

[CJLightweight]

Originally Posted by Igor

Povetkin with Kostya Tszyu around 2004 I believe. That's why he looks so skinny.

lol..i didn't notice KT there in that pic, thought that was you

[Igor]

Originally Posted by Igor

Everybody knows the deal on Kirkland.. basically a 154 pound Katsidis. All-out pressure fighter from the opening round, no defense, mediocre at best accuracy/timing, good punching power (IMO people overrate it, but whatever, it won't matter here).. overall a sloppy fighter with a shaky chin and what seems to be no backup plan when he doesn't get his opponent out of there early and begins tiring.

Ricardo Cortes is a very tall boxer-puncher who has fairly solid skills and ability, some power, better accuracy and timing than Kirkland, but has a leaky defense and a very shaky chin. In his last fight against Alfredo Angulo, he started off well in the beginning of the first round, but he got caught big and stopped. The same thing could happen in this fight, but I think Cortes realizes what he needs to do.. fight the early rounds extremely safely and throw punches at the right time. Kirkland is very dangerous, especially to a fighter like Cortes whose defense is leaky and chin is vulnerable, but he is also very open to counters. Cortes doesn't need to fight the early rounds in survival mode. He needs to fight very cautiously and be defensive, but also try to counter Kirkland with a right hand as he's coming in or after he makes him miss. Cortes has the power to hurt Kirkland and stop him. He certainly has the skill to connect big shots on him and the ability to get out of the way of Kirkland's wild punches. Cortes will not be able to just run and clinch early on.. letting Kirkland bully him around is not a good idea because he needs to force him to show respect.

The first few rounds will be tough for Cortes. If he gets hurt or dropped, he needs to clinch, not answer by exchanging like he did against Angulo. If Cortes hurts Kirkland, he doesn't need tot go for the kill. He should be patient about stopping Kirkland early on and keep watching out for his looping power shots.

Even with his chin problems, Cortes won't need to worry much about his chin if he survives those early rounds. Once Kirkland loses his pop (like he did in the past when his opponents survived), he becomes completely ineffective against a fighter in Cortes' class. Cortes will be able to use his superior boxing ability to control the fight and dominate him from the outside, stopping him or winning a very clear decision.

I'll pick Cortes by mid-rounds stoppage. But I think anything from Kirkland KO1 to Cortes KO1 or Cortes wide decision is highly possible here. BTW, this fight is on FNF next week. ESPN has been making some good matchups this season.

The odds for the fight came out and Kirkland is a 15/1 favorite. That's way, way, way too high IMO.

Another thing to note about this matchup that I didn't realize before is that it's taking place at 156, not 154. That's a slight advantage to Cortes because he won't have to drain like hell to get those last 2 pounds off like he did against Angulo. I still think this is a pick'em fight, especially after watching Kirkland again. If he gets caught with one big punch early he could get taken out.. if he doesn't take Cortes out early, he's basically screwed. Should be interesting and very exciting.

Originally Posted by CJLightweight

lol..i didn't notice KT there in that pic, thought that was you

I guess Povetkin doesn't exactly look like a star boxer.

I'm as tall as him, but at least 60 pounds lighter. He's built like a typical Russian, I'm built like an out of training Jose Armando Santa Cruz. Well, not that damn wiry.

[Benny Blanco]

Originally Posted by brooklyn1550

He reminds me of a light middleweight Edison Miranda with the ability to throw shorter punches.

Good point brooklyn, that's is why I don't see how fans can think he is so much better than Joe Greene.

[Illmatic]

Originally Posted by brooklyn1550

Kirkland disagrees with you. Here's a quote from earlier today...

"Tyson had some gifts, power, movement, some things he can do in the ring. But I'm better than Tyson. I can box, move, the whole nine yards. My style's like his, I'm coming straight at you, but when I meet someone who can counter that style, I will still find a way to knock you out. Tyson was a one dimensional fighter. So when someone compares me to Tyson, I say 'thanks,' but I'm better than him."

I seriously think you're underestimating Kirkland, Igor. The guy said he's better than Mike Tyson. It must be true.

I think a level of arrogance is necessary to be a great fighter...but I think this quote just made me hate him.