Analysis for some up and coming fighters in tough matches during the next few weeks..

[Igor]

Roman Greenberg, Matt Godfrey and James Kirkland are taking some high risk fights.

This Friday, HW prospect Roman Greenberg is going from years of facing D levels to suddenly facing Cedric Boswell, a consistent, large HW who gave Jameel McCline a very tough fight and was up on the cards going into the final round before getting dropped and TKO'd with less than one minute left. The McCine fight is Boswell's only loss and since returning to boxing in 2006 (2 years after the loss), he's signed with a new promoter and been very active against the same level of opponents as Greenberg, destroying them with more ease. In 2008, he shut out a solid-chinned D level and blew out Cliff Couser, while Greenberg hasn't fought since October of last year, where he dropped a few rounds to a guy who was destroyed by any decent heavies in the past. Apparently he had a hand surgery during his layoff.

Putting Greenberg in with Boswell right now is a dumb idea IMO. He hasn't fought in a year and now he's going to be put in with a guy whose boxing skill is on a much higher level compared to his past opponents and might even be better than his own? A guy who could hit MUCH harder than any of his past opponents and is going to be a lot more motivated, since he's been looking for a significant fight for a while. He's also facing him in Boswell's home town! I can't believe Greenberg's team didn't even give him a tune-up fight. He rarely looks comfortable in the ring and after the biggest layoff in his career he's bound to be a little rusty.

If you haven't seen Greenberg fight, he's basically a very slow paced fighter who picks his shots and likes to stay on the outside for the most part, going in and out with combinations. There's nothing that stands out about him talent-wise. His handspeed isn't bad, his timing/accuracy is pretty decent, and he has some power. But I think his defense and mental strength is his very weak. When being pressured, Greenberg moves more than he needs to and punches back much less than he should. He's very uncomfortable any time an opponent pressures him with anything. A basic jab pushes him back and even the weak opposition he's faced didn't have too many problems landing the jab in between his strange, often way open guard. I also think he has the type of fighters mentality where when things aren't going his way, he'll choose to shell up, clinch, and run instead of firing back. He lacks the fire that a prospect must have if they want to be successful against anyone C- level or better. Greenberg doesn't impose himself against opponents, he just waits and fires shots when his opponents let him.. if they're firing or are too defensive, he simply won't answer back.

Greenberg doesn't move his head or defend his face much in general, so he ends up running right into punches very often, when coming in with his hands down or pulling straight back. He can get away with this against the competition he's faced in the past, but Boswell has some serious power. Boswell could hurt him badly with a timed right hand and I'm sure he'll have no trouble landing it. If Greenberg's chin is shaky, which I think there's a pretty good chance it is, this fight may be over pretty quickly. If his chin is pretty solid, I still think he'll lose after getting outworked and outboxed by Boswell, who's more experienced, and perhaps quicker than Greenberg. ESPN replayed Boswell-McCline recently and I was half-watching it.. from what I remember, Boswell was controlling the fight and outboxing McCline, but Jameel was slowly breaking him down and after hurting him in the 9th when Boswell was exhausted, he put him out in the 10th as Boswell tried desperately to hang on until the final bell. Greenberg lacks Jameel's size and isn't going to be breaking Boswell down. He has a very realistic chance in this fight to land something big (especially an uppercut that Boswell doesn't expect) and maybe stop him, but I see Boswell as being both the slightly superior boxer and fighter here, who will be more comfortable with the situation. I can't believe Greenberg opened up as the slight odds-favorite, IMO Boswell should be favored at least 2-1.. but I guess that zero on Greenberg's record impresses people. Anyways, this fight should be a good test for both of them. Anyone have other thoughts on this? I'll pick Boswell by wide UD and I think a KO is highly possible here. Damn.. that was a long write-up for a fight between two C levels.

[Igor]

On FNF this week, Godfrey, who lost a close, but clear decision to the more expe rienced prospect Rudolf Kraj in Germany, takes on Nwodo, the hard hitting, big African CW who was brutally stopped by Ding. He bounced back with his own brutal KO against Ezra Sellers earlier this year in two rounds and hasn't fought since. Godfrey hasn't been very active either though.

In his fight against Derrick Brown (someone who was shut out by Jonathan Banks and has a draw against Gary Gomez, the fat CW who Adamek recently owned), he became overly tentative after getting caught with a big punch in the early-mid rounds and let Brown outwork him for the majority of the fight. He was wobbled in the last round, but he still ended up winning a narrow decision. Also, Godfrey was knocked down earlier in his career, so his chin is very questionable, despite handling Kraj's power well.

Against Kraj, Godfrey showed good boxing skill from the outside and looked motivated, but he ended up giving away too many rounds by being overly tentative again and not firing enough. His handspeed is good, his skills are pretty good too. He just has that common problem with many slick outside fighters, where they let pressure fighters take rounds using more aggression than they're comfortable with. He sees openings, but he chooses to move instead of countering a lot of times.

Godfrey is fighting in home town and he realizes that this is a dangerous fight, so he should be coming in highly motivated. However, Nwodo has the type of power to turn the tide at any time during the fight and force Godfrey to become overly tentative again. Nwodo hits hard and his boxing skill is pretty good (worse than Godfrey's though and his handspeed is slower), but his output is pretty low because he puts a lot of force into his power shots. The important thing for him here is to keep moving Godfrey back, making him tentative. He doesn't need to put a ton of force into every power shot, he just needs to throw punches consistently at him, using the jab a lot and trying to land something huge every now and then to keep Godfrey uncomfortable. Godfrey counters less when he's worried about getting caught with something and if Nwodo fights in spurts too often he will give this fight away.

Godfrey is nearly a 2-1 favorite, but I think this is pretty much an even matchup. I see Godfrey doing pretty well early, starting to break down mentally during the middle rounds as Nwodo warms up and keeps him moving, then possibly coming back strong in the later rounds in the fight if Nwodo becomes tired. They both have the power to hurt eachother, but Nwodo has the power to take Godfrey out, while Godfrey will need to work harder for the stoppage IMO. I think Nwodo has a great chance of winning a decision because of his aggression, power, and size.. but there's also a good chance Godfrey gets a gift (or a deserving decision) in his hometown from landing the cleaner shots. I'll pick Nwodo by SD, but wouldn't be surprised if he won by KO or lost a close decision.

[Igor]

Everybody knows the deal on Kirkland.. basically a 154 pound Katsidis. All-out pressure fighter from the opening round, no defense, mediocre at best accuracy/timing, good punching power (IMO people overrate it, but whatever, it won't matter here).. overall a sloppy fighter with a shaky chin and what seems to be no backup plan when he doesn't get his opponent out of there early and begins tiring.

Ricardo Cortes is a very tall boxer-puncher who has fairly solid skills and ability, some power, better accuracy and timing than Kirkland, but has a leaky defense and a very shaky chin. In his last fight against Alfredo Angulo, he started off well in the beginning of the first round, but he got caught big and stopped. The same thing could happen in this fight, but I think Cortes realizes what he needs to do.. fight the early rounds extremely safely and throw punches at the right time. Kirkland is very dangerous, especially to a fighter like Cortes whose defense is leaky and chin is vulnerable, but he is also very open to counters. Cortes doesn't need to fight the early rounds in survival mode. He needs to fight very cautiously and be defensive, but also try to counter Kirkland with a right hand as he's coming in or after he makes him miss. Cortes has the power to hurt Kirkland and stop him. He certainly has the skill to connect big shots on him and the ability to get out of the way of Kirkland's wild punches. Cortes will not be able to just run and clinch early on.. letting Kirkland bully him around is not a good idea because he needs to force him to show respect.

The first few rounds will be tough for Cortes. If he gets hurt or dropped, he needs to clinch, not answer by exchanging like he did against Angulo. If Cortes hurts Kirkland, he doesn't need tot go for the kill. He should be patient about stopping Kirkland early on and keep watching out for his looping power shots.

Even with his chin problems, Cortes won't need to worry much about his chin if he survives those early rounds. Once Kirkland loses his pop (like he did in the past when his opponents survived), he becomes completely ineffective against a fighter in Cortes' class. Cortes will be able to use his superior boxing ability to control the fight and dominate him from the outside, stopping him or winning a very clear decision.

I'll pick Cortes by mid-rounds stoppage. But I think anything from Kirkland KO1 to Cortes KO1 or Cortes wide decision is highly possible here. BTW, this fight is on FNF next week. ESPN has been making some good matchups this season.

[brooklyn1550]

Originally Posted by Igor

overall a sloppy fighter with a shaky chin and what seems to be no backup plan when he doesn't get his opponent out of there early and begins tiring.

Kirkland disagrees with you. Here's a quote from earlier today...

"Tyson had some gifts, power, movement, some things he can do in the ring. But I'm better than Tyson. I can box, move, the whole nine yards. My style's like his, I'm coming straight at you, but when I meet someone who can counter that style, I will still find a way to knock you out. Tyson was a one dimensional fighter. So when someone compares me to Tyson, I say 'thanks,' but I'm better than him."

I seriously think you're underestimating Kirkland, Igor. The guy said he's better than Mike Tyson. It must be true.

[brooklyn1550]

Great breakdowns. Don't know much about Matt Godfrey, so I can't comment, but I agree with you on Roman Greenberg-Cedric Boswell.

[Igor]

Originally Posted by brooklyn1550

Kirkland disagrees with you. Here's a quote from earlier today...

"Tyson had some gifts, power, movement, some things he can do in the ring. But I'm better than Tyson. I can box, move, the whole nine yards. My style's like his, I'm coming straight at you, but when I meet someone who can counter that style, I will still find a way to knock you out. Tyson was a one dimensional fighter. So when someone compares me to Tyson, I say 'thanks,' but I'm better than him."

I seriously think you're underestimating Kirkland, Igor. The guy said he's better than Mike Tyson. It must be true.

Yeah, I saw that today. Before I read the inside of the article I thought he was going to say, "Tyson didn't keep firing punches, he got stopped.. I'll never stop coming!". Then when I found out he said it's because he was multi-dimensional and Tyson wasn't I couldn't stop laughing. Anne Wolfe must be feeding this guy bullshit about how he's the greatest pressure fighter ever or something.

Do you have a pick for this fight?

[brooklyn1550]

Originally Posted by Igor

Yeah, I saw that today. Before I read the inside of the article I thought he was going to say, "Tyson didn't keep firing punches, he got stopped.. I'll never stop coming!". Then when I found out he said it's because he was multi-dimensional and Tyson wasn't I couldn't stop laughing. Anne Wolfe must be feeding this guy bullshit about how he's the greatest pressure fighter ever or something.

Do you have a pick for this fight?

Kirkland by stoppage somewhere within the first 3 rounds, but I wouldn't be terribly surprised if he got dropped beforehand or even lost via stoppage. He doesn't seem to have a very good chin.

[smoochp]

Originally Posted by brooklyn1550

Kirkland disagrees with you. Here's a quote from earlier today...

"Tyson had some gifts, power, movement, some things he can do in the ring. But I'm better than Tyson. I can box, move, the whole nine yards. My style's like his, I'm coming straight at you, but when I meet someone who can counter that style, I will still find a way to knock you out. Tyson was a one dimensional fighter. So when someone compares me to Tyson, I say 'thanks,' but I'm better than him."

I seriously think you're underestimating Kirkland, Igor. The guy said he's better than Mike Tyson. It must be true.

I seen that today also, he is just trying to hype himself up. Tyson was a special HW in his prime. In reality there wasn't and probably never be another HW fighter like him. There are to many Kirkland type of fighters. To bad he can only brawl, because when he gets in the ring with a great boxer think Tito vs Winky

[brooklyn1550]

Originally Posted by smoochp

I seen that today also, he is just trying to hype himself up. Tyson was a special HW in his prime. In reality there wasn't and probably never be another HW fighter like him. There are to many Kirkland type of fighters. To bad he can only brawl, because when he gets in the ring with a great boxer think Tito vs Winky

He reminds me of a light middleweight Edison Miranda with the ability to throw shorter punches.

[Igor]

Originally Posted by smoochp

I seen that today also, he is just trying to hype himself up. Tyson was a special HW in his prime. In reality there wasn't and probably never be another HW fighter like him. There are to many Kirkland type of fighters. To bad he can only brawl, because when he gets in the ring with a great boxer think Tito vs Winky

More like Mayweather-Gatti, but even comparing Kirkland to Gatti is a bit insulting.

Originally Posted by brooklyn1550

He reminds me of a light middleweight Edison Miranda with the ability to throw shorter punches.

But Miranda actually has some real one punch power and a better chin.

[cardstars]

Hey dude nice write ups, my picks are:

Boswell by UD - This is a tough fight to pick for me, mainly because I have not seen Boswell fight before. Lol. But Greenberg doesn't impress me at all. As you have already stated he is slow, plodding, easy to time out, predictable, and has a leaky defense at best. Both have been on and off active/inactive, and I just don't know what to expect from Greenberg. Something tells me his heart isn't in it, so I will take Boswell, even though I have not seen him fight. Hows that for an analysis? LOL

Godfrey by close UD - I think Godfrey is a little too skilled for Nwodo. He doesn't fire as much as he should at times but the hometown crowd will be backing him. I think he will be very cautious early and then find his groove in the mid rounds and cruise his way to a decision. Does Godfrey remind you of Chris Chambers at all? I feel like im watching the same guy sometimes. Awkward, cautious, defensive, doesn't sit on his punches at all, always ready to move instead of stand and trade, etc.

Kirkland by early ko - I personally doubt this fight will go more than 3 rounds. I don't see Cortes making it through the early storm Kirkland will surely bring. Cortes is very good at outside boxing, but he doesn't have the movement to effectively stay away from Kirkland (while keeping him honest). Not to mention his chin isn't too great either

[Igor]

Originally Posted by cardstars

Hey dude nice write ups, my picks are:

Boswell by UD - This is a tough fight to pick for me, mainly because I have not seen Boswell fight before. Lol. But Greenberg doesn't impress me at all. As you have already stated he is slow, plodding, easy to time out, predictable, and has a leaky defense at best. Both have been on and off active/inactive, and I just don't know what to expect from Greenberg. Something tells me his heart isn't in it, so I will take Boswell, even though I have not seen him fight. Hows that for an analysis? LOL

Godfrey by close UD - I think Godfrey is a little too skilled for Nwodo. He doesn't fire as much as he should at times but the hometown crowd will be backing him. I think he will be very cautious early and then find his groove in the mid rounds and cruise his way to a decision. Does Godfrey remind you of Chris Chambers at all? I feel like im watching the same guy sometimes. Awkward, cautious, defensive, doesn't sit on his punches at all, always ready to move instead of stand and trade, etc.

Kirkland by early ko - I personally doubt this fight will go more than 3 rounds. I don't see Cortes making it through the early storm Kirkland will surely bring. Cortes is very good at outside boxing, but he doesn't have the movement to effectively stay away from Kirkland (while keeping him honest). Not to mention his chin isn't too great either

Godfrey's style is pretty similar, but Chambers doesn't move around as much and is more comfortable fighting in the pocket. He's a lot more comfortable in general. Godfrey is easier to push around and control because he can't handle pressure very well. Even C level high-output pressure fighters would be way too much for him IMO, because he doesn't have a defensive guard like Chambers and is one of those slick boxers who moves around too much and looks nervous. Chambers doesn't freeze up nearly as often, he just doesn't throw punches often enough. Godfrey has a lot of problems with his style and poise, plus his lack of output. Nwodo could realistically starch him if he lands something huge.. I think Godfrey will prove to have serious chin problems in the future. Chambers' chin seems solid and he's able to keep his composure. He just has one basic problem, low punch output. If he improved and threw 700 punches a fight he would be a very good fighter.. even with his current 35 punches a round type of style I think he could beat the Peter who we saw against McCline and Maskaev.

I wouldn't be surprised at all if Kirkland does end up blowing Cortes out early. I'm counting on Cortes to weather the storm though, which is a 50/50 chance.

[Igor]

Originally Posted by Igor

On FNF this week, Godfrey, who lost a close, but clear decision to the more expe rienced prospect Rudolf Kraj in Germany, takes on Nwodo, the hard hitting, big African CW who was brutally stopped by Ding. He bounced back with his own brutal KO against Ezra Sellers earlier this year in two rounds and hasn't fought since. Godfrey hasn't been very active either though.

In his fight against Derrick Brown (someone who was shut out by Jonathan Banks and has a draw against Gary Gomez, the fat CW who Adamek recently owned), he became overly tentative after getting caught with a big punch in the early-mid rounds and let Brown outwork him for the majority of the fight. He was wobbled in the last round, but he still ended up winning a narrow decision. Also, Godfrey was knocked down earlier in his career, so his chin is very questionable, despite handling Kraj's power well.

Against Kraj, Godfrey showed good boxing skill from the outside and looked motivated, but he ended up giving away too many rounds by being overly tentative again and not firing enough. His handspeed is good, his skills are pretty good too. He just has that common problem with many slick outside fighters, where they let pressure fighters take rounds using more aggression than they're comfortable with. He sees openings, but he chooses to move instead of countering a lot of times.

Godfrey is fighting in home town and he realizes that this is a dangerous fight, so he should be coming in highly motivated. However, Nwodo has the type of power to turn the tide at any time during the fight and force Godfrey to become overly tentative again. Nwodo hits hard and his boxing skill is pretty good (worse than Godfrey's though and his handspeed is slower), but his output is pretty low because he puts a lot of force into his power shots. The important thing for him here is to keep moving Godfrey back, making him tentative. He doesn't need to put a ton of force into every power shot, he just needs to throw punches consistently at him, using the jab a lot and trying to land something huge every now and then to keep Godfrey uncomfortable. Godfrey counters less when he's worried about getting caught with something and if Nwodo fights in spurts too often he will give this fight away.

Godfrey is nearly a 2-1 favorite, but I think this is pretty much an even matchup. I see Godfrey doing pretty well early, starting to break down mentally during the middle rounds as Nwodo warms up and keeps him moving, then possibly coming back strong in the later rounds in the fight if Nwodo becomes tired. They both have the power to hurt eachother, but Nwodo has the power to take Godfrey out, while Godfrey will need to work harder for the stoppage IMO. I think Nwodo has a great chance of winning a decision because of his aggression, power, and size.. but there's also a good chance Godfrey gets a gift (or a deserving decision) in his hometown from landing the cleaner shots. I'll pick Nwodo by SD, but wouldn't be surprised if he won by KO or lost a close decision.

Well, I pretty much got the analysis correct on this fight and my suspicion that Godfrey has serious chin problems even though he went 12 rounds without getting hurt by Kraj seems to be correct. Nwodo got caught and Godfrey got the stoppage win in an exciting fight. In round 4, Nwodo shouldn't have been going for the kill. There was no point of going for the KO.. he was way up on the cards, not having problems with Godfrey's style, and simply jabbing and throwing normal right hands was making his opponent very uncomfortable. He knew that he could hurt Godfrey and put him out, so he decided to concentrate on bombing him out instead of boxing, which left him way open and got him hurt. He initally got hurt when he threw a wild right hand and didn't put a jab behind it, leaving him in position to get countered by something he couldn't even see. He should have stuck to a safer strategy... the KO would come by itself and if it woudn't he would still most likely be in position to win a clear decision anyways.

The stoppage wasn't good IMO. Nwodo should have been given more time. He was throwing punches back.. I think the ref panicked a bit when he saw how much blood was on Nwodo's face. But that's a whole different thing to get into. We got to see what Godfrey basically is tonight.. a boxer with good handspeed/power, pretty solid technical skills, but a very shaky chin, leaky defense, and low punch output. If he became more relaxed and comfortable in the ring he could improve, but IMO it won't happen. He went through hell with Nwodo today and fortunately for him, Nwodo had a shaky chin himself and Godfrey was able to come through because of that. He showed good heart, but I still think he would be stopped by a hard chinned, high punch output pressure fighter.

Still don't know the result of the Greenburg fight.. is it even happening?

[brooklyn1550]

Great call on Boswell-Greenburg. Boswell TKO2

[acb_]

Igor I like your threads on modern boxing a lot, keep em coming.